Winter Rains Support Butterfly Diversity, but Summer Monsoon Rainfall Drives Post-Monsoon Butterfly Abundance in the Arid Southwest of the US

Butterfly populations are declining worldwide, reflecting our current global biodiversity crisis. Because butterflies are a popular and accurate indicator of insect populations, these declines reflect an even more widespread threat to insects and the food webs upon which they rely. As small ectotherms, insects have a narrow range of habitable conditions; hence, extreme fluctuations and shifts caused by climate change may increase insects’ risk of extinction. We evaluated trends of butterfly richness and abundance and their relationship with relevant climate variables in Arizona, U.S.A., using the past 40 years of community science data. We focused on precipitation and temperature as they are known to be influential for insect survival, particularly in arid areas like southwestern U.S.A. We found that preceding winter precipitation is a driver of both spring and summer/fall butterfly richness and spring butterfly abundance. In contrast, summer/fall butterfly abundance was driven by summer monsoon precipitations. The statistically significant declines over the 40-year period were summer/fall butterfly abundance and spring butterfly richness. When controlling for the other variables in the model, there was an average annual 1.81% decline in summer/fall season butterfly abundance and an average annual decline of 2.13 species in the spring season. As climate change continues to negatively impact winter precipitation patterns in this arid region, we anticipate the loss of butterfly species in this region and must consider individual butterfly species trends and additional management and conservation needs.