Visual Communication of Probabilistic Information to Enhance Decision Support

When hazardous weather is forecast, communicating probabilistic information (PI) can improve trust, confidence, and understanding of forecast information, resulting in improved decision-making by emergency managers and public audiences. With probabilistic forecast tools modernizing forecast operations, the National Weather Service is calling on regional offices to increase the use of PI. However, communicating PI can be challenging since the information is intrinsically more complex than single-value deterministic forecasts that do not include a measure of uncertainty. We suggest that effective PI visualization not only includes the PI graphic but also communicates potential impacts and issues preventative guidance to limit exposure to weather-related hazards. Decision support tools like PI benefit from, if not require, effective visual communication that capitalizes on the efficiency of the visual system to extract information, decrease the time to interpret information, and increase the understanding of uncertainties. Furthermore, PI visuals need to be accessible to disabled and neurodivergent audiences. To enhance the visual communication of PI, we synthesize literature from graphic design and social science to identify guiding principles for effective visual communication and provide a one-page printout quick guide. To showcase how forecasters can incorporate guiding principles in the local context, we provide examples built from readily usable templates to demonstrate how probabilistic forecast information extracted from tools like the National Blend of Models can be used to enhance the visual communication of PI to support more informed decision-making.