@article{a0e8f7c336ab438c84edf8462488d0b9,
title = "Using a Multi-Institutional Ensemble of Watershed Models to Assess Agricultural Conservation Effectiveness in a Future Climate",
abstract = "This study investigates the combined impacts of climate change and agricultural conservation on the magnitude and uncertainty of nutrient loadings in the Maumee River Watershed, the second-largest watershed of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Two scenarios — baseline agricultural management and increased agricultural conservation — were assessed using an ensemble of five Soil and Water Assessment Tools driven by six climate models. The increased conservation scenario included raising conservation adoption rates from a baseline of existing conservation practices to feasible rates in the near future based on farmer surveys. This increased adoption of winter cover crops on 6%–10% to 60% of cultivated cropland; subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers on 35%–60% to 68% of cultivated cropland; and buffer strips intercepting runoff from 29%–34% to 50% of cultivated cropland. Increased conservation resulted in statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) reductions in annual loads of total phosphorus (41%), dissolved reactive phosphorus (18%), and total nitrogen (14%) under the highest emission climate scenario (RCP 8.5). While nutrient loads decreased with increased conservation relative to baseline management for all watershed models, different conclusions on the true effectiveness of conservation under climate change may be drawn if only one watershed model was used.",
keywords = "Soil and Water Assessment Tool, climate change, hydrology, nutrients, scenario analysis",
author = "Haley Kujawa and Margaret Kalcic and Jay Martin and Anna Apostel and Jeffrey Kast and Asmita Murumkar and Grey Evenson and Noel Aloysius and Richard Becker and Chelsie Boles and Remegio Confesor and Awoke Dagnew and Tian Guo and Muenich, {Rebecca Logsdon} and Todd Redder and Wang, {Yu Chen} and Donald Scavia",
note = "Funding Information: This project was funded by the Ohio Department of Higher Education Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative (R/HAB‐5‐ODHE). We thank our stakeholder advisory group for their active engagement in designing the project and their review of the work. We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, the United States Department of Energy{\textquoteleft}s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We are very appreciative of all research groups involved in the production and distribution of the climate data used in this project (Table 1 ). Open access funding enabled and organized by ProjektDEAL. Funding Information: This project was funded by the Ohio Department of Higher Education Harmful Algal Bloom Research Initiative (R/HAB-5-ODHE). We thank our stakeholder advisory group for their active engagement in designing the project and their review of the work. We also acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, the United States Department of Energy{\textquoteleft}s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, and the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We are very appreciative of all research groups involved in the production and distribution of the climate data used in this project (Table 1). Open access funding enabled and organized by ProjektDEAL. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Water Resources Association.",
year = "2022",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1111/1752-1688.13023",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "58",
pages = "1326--1340",
journal = "Journal of the American Water Resources Association",
issn = "1093-474X",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "6",
}