## Abstract

Alluvial fans along mountain bases pose interesting problems for highway crossings design and flood insurance studies. In this paper, Rosenblueth's point-estimate is applied to the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) alluvial fan method to compute the mean and standard deviation for the 100-year discharge at any point on the fan and the mean and standard deviation for the fan arc width. The mean and standard deviations for the 100-year discharge are used to obtain the risk that the 100-year discharge will exceed the discharge capacity of hydraulic structures. The mean and standard deviations for the fan arc width are used to estimate the risk that a given location on the fan is within the hazard flood zone. The HEC-1 rainfall-runoff computer model is used to compute inputs to the FEMA method. The proposed methodology is applied to an alluvial fan in north Scottsdale, Arizona.

Original language | English (US) |
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Title of host publication | Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources, Proceedings of the Conference |

Place of Publication | New York, NY, United States |

Publisher | ASCE |

Pages | 180-190 |

Number of pages | 11 |

State | Published - 1996 |

Event | Proceedings of the 1995 7th Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources - Santa Barbara, CA, USA Duration: Oct 8 1995 → Oct 13 1995 |

### Other

Other | Proceedings of the 1995 7th Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources |
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City | Santa Barbara, CA, USA |

Period | 10/8/95 → 10/13/95 |

## ASJC Scopus subject areas

- General Earth and Planetary Sciences
- General Environmental Science