TY - JOUR
T1 - The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates
T2 - An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis
AU - Messner, Steven F.
AU - Anselin, Luc
AU - Baller, Robert D.
AU - Hawkins, Darnell F.
AU - Deane, Glenn
AU - Tolnay, Stewart E.
N1 - Funding Information:
Support for this research was provided by a grant from the National Consortium on Violence Research (NCOVR). The NCOVR is supported under Grant SBR 9513040 from the National Science Foundation. Support was also provided by a grant from the NSF (SBR-9410612) to Luc Anselin and by grants to the Center for Social and Demographic Analysis from the NICHD (P30 HD32041) and NSF (SBR-9512290). A previous version of this paper was presented at the 50th Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, November 11–14, 1998, in Washington, DC. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
PY - 1999
Y1 - 1999
N2 - The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area to another has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yet systematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength, of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78 counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two time periods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984-1988) and a period of generally increasing homicide (1988-1993). The findings reveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positive spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution of homicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of one county containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearby counties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Although traditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatial distribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluent areas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers against the diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealed through ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification of multivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.
AB - The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area to another has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yet systematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength, of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78 counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two time periods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984-1988) and a period of generally increasing homicide (1988-1993). The findings reveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positive spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution of homicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of one county containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearby counties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Although traditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatial distribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluent areas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers against the diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealed through ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification of multivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.
KW - County homicide rates
KW - Exploratory spatial data analysis
KW - Homicide
KW - Spatial patterning
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U2 - 10.1023/A:1007544208712
DO - 10.1023/A:1007544208712
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0033276394
SN - 0748-4518
VL - 15
SP - 423
EP - 450
JO - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
JF - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
IS - 4
ER -