The moon and El Ninõ

Randall Cerveny; J. A. Shaffer

doi:10.1029/2000GL012117

The moon and El Ninõ

Randall Cerveny, J. A. Shaffer

Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, School of (SGSUP)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

26 Scopus citations

Abstract

Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61-year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar-influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold-water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non-El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	25-28
Number of pages	4
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	28
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012117
State	Published - Jan 1 2001

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

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10.1029/2000GL012117

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title = "The moon and El Nin{\~o}",

abstract = "Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61-year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Ni{\~n}o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar-influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold-water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Ni{\~n}o episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non-El Ni{\~n}o (either La Ni{\~n}a or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.",

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The moon and El Ninõ

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