TY - JOUR
T1 - The long-term expansion and recession of human populations
AU - Freeman, Jacob
AU - Robinson, Erick
AU - Bird, Darcy
AU - Hard, Robert J.
AU - Mauldin, Raymond P.
AU - Anderies, John M.
PY - 2024/3/19
Y1 - 2024/3/19
N2 - Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.
AB - Over the last 12,000 y, human populations have expanded and transformed critical earth systems. Yet, a key unresolved question in the environmental and social sciences remains: Why did human populations grow and, sometimes, decline in the first place? Our research builds on 20 y of archaeological research studying the deep time dynamics of human populations to propose an explanation for the long-term growth and stability of human populations. Innovations in the productive capacity of populations fuels exponential-like growth over thousands of years; however, innovations saturate over time and, often, may leave populations vulnerable to large recessions in their well-being and population density. Empirically, we find a trade-off between changes in land use that increase the production and consumption of carbohydrates, driving repeated waves of population growth over thousands of years, and the susceptibility of populations to large recessions due to a lag in the impact of humans on resources. These results shed light on the long-term drivers of human population growth and decline.
KW - demographic transitions
KW - human ecology
KW - human population
KW - radiocarbon
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85187777755&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2312207121
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2312207121
M3 - Article
C2 - 38466852
AN - SCOPUS:85187777755
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 121
SP - e2312207121
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 12
ER -