TY - JOUR
T1 - The empirical relevance of hotelling's model for natural resources
AU - Smith, V. Kerry
N1 - Funding Information:
*Thanks are due Mary Kokoski for her most capable research assistance and to Edgar Feige. A.N. Halter. Geoffrey Heal, Raymond Kopp, Robert Pindyck. and Andrew Schmitz for their most helpful comments on earlier drafts of this work. This research was supported under a contract from the Electric Power Research Institute to Resources for the Future (RP 1217-l). None of these individuals or institutions is responsible for the views or conclusions in this paper. ‘For a detailed discussion of the theoretical model involved and reviews of the literature. see Dasgupta and (1979) and Peterson and Fisher (1977).
PY - 1981/10
Y1 - 1981/10
N2 - This paper reports the results of an evaluation of the performance of arbitrage models for explaining the price movements for exhaustible natural resources. This appraisal was based on the ex post forecasting performance for eleven years outside the sample period. Data for twelve minerals over the period 1900 to 1973 provided the basis of study. Two features distinguished the alternative descriptions of arbitrage in these resource markets. They are: the description of the process for each natural resource's expected rate of price appreciation, and the measure of the expected rate of return for alternative assets. Overall, the results indicate that the Heal-Barrow (1980) specification was consistently among the 'best' models for the twelve minerals studies. It was not, however, uniformly superior to naive models for forecasting price movements.
AB - This paper reports the results of an evaluation of the performance of arbitrage models for explaining the price movements for exhaustible natural resources. This appraisal was based on the ex post forecasting performance for eleven years outside the sample period. Data for twelve minerals over the period 1900 to 1973 provided the basis of study. Two features distinguished the alternative descriptions of arbitrage in these resource markets. They are: the description of the process for each natural resource's expected rate of price appreciation, and the measure of the expected rate of return for alternative assets. Overall, the results indicate that the Heal-Barrow (1980) specification was consistently among the 'best' models for the twelve minerals studies. It was not, however, uniformly superior to naive models for forecasting price movements.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0019623260&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0019623260&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/0165-0572(81)90018-9
DO - 10.1016/0165-0572(81)90018-9
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0019623260
SN - 0165-0572
VL - 3
SP - 105
EP - 117
JO - Resources and Energy
JF - Resources and Energy
IS - 2
ER -