SURGING VOLATILITY: AN INTERNET EFFECT?

Deepak Agrawal, Sreedhar T. Bharath, Siva Viswanathan

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of firms’ adoption of online retailing on their stock price volatility. Given the nascency of the Web, firms moving online are faced with an increased uncertainty in their product markets in addition to fixed setup costs. A simple model illustrates how increased uncertainty in the product markets increases the volatility of the firm’s profits and its stock price. Results consistent with the model are confirmed by an empirical analysis of the volatility of stock prices of traditional firms adopting online-retailing. Both the traditional event study methodology as well as the structural break analysis reveal a distinct surge in volatility of firms’ stock prices around the date of announcement of their online-retailing operations, an effect that is absent in a matched sample of traditional firms. More interestingly, the volatility-surge is absent for the sample of firms that moved online prior to June 1998. Ongoing research examines possible drivers and the implications of these phenomena for investors, firms, and regulatory authorities.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages497-502
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2001
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Information Systems, ICIS 2001 - New Orleans, United States
Duration: Dec 16 2001Dec 19 2001

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Information Systems, ICIS 2001
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNew Orleans
Period12/16/0112/19/01

Keywords

  • Electronic commerce
  • online retailing
  • structural break analysis
  • volatility

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Information Systems

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