Resilience and regime shifts: Assessing cascading effects

Ann Kinzig, Paul Ryan, Michel Etienne, Helen Allison, Thomas Elmqvist, Brian H. Walker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

328 Scopus citations


Most accounts of thresholds between alternate regimes involve a single, dominant shift defined by one, often slowly changing variable in an ecosystem. This paper expands the focus to include similar dynamics in social and economic systems, in which multiple variables may act together in ways that produce interacting regime shifts in social-ecological systems. We use four different regions in the world, each of which contains multiple thresholds, to develop a proposed "general model" of threshold interactions in social-ecological systems. The model identifies patch-scale ecological thresholds, farm- or landscape-scale economic thresholds, and regional-scale sociocultural thresholds. "Cascading thresholds," i.e., the tendency of the crossing of one threshold to induce the crossing of other thresholds, often lead to very resilient, although often less desirable, alternative states.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number20
JournalEcology and Society
Issue number1
StatePublished - Jun 2006


  • Cascading effects
  • Regime shifts
  • Social-ecological systems
  • System interactions
  • Thresholds

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology


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