Regulatory effectiveness and the long-run policy horizon: The case of U.S. toxic chemical use

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4 Scopus citations


This paper employs state-of-the-art time series analysis to examine the long-run economic and institutional drivers of toxic chemical use behavior in the U.S. Toxic chemicals are classified into growth, Environmental Kuznets Curve (. EKC), and kinked-growth chemicals, according to their long-run use trend behavior. Cointegration analysis shows that while some toxic chemicals have been successfully reduced by regulatory efforts, a majority of the toxic chemicals used in commercial products share a long-run equilibrium with national accounts and industrial production, suggesting that toxic chemical use has been largely driven by changes in GDP, industrial production, and private R&D investments, rather than by government regulations. Estimated structural break results indicate that the 1986 Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act, which created the Toxic Release Inventory has had impact on the consumptive use of more poisonous industrial chemicals than command-and-control regulations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)6-22
Number of pages17
JournalEnvironmental Science and Policy
StatePublished - Oct 1 2015


  • Cointegration
  • Policy effectiveness
  • Structural change
  • Toxic chemical use
  • Unit root

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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