Predictive crime mapping

J. Fitterer, T. A. Nelson, F. Nathoo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

34 Scopus citations


Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have emerged as a key tool in intelligence-led policing and spatial predictions of crime are being used by many police services to reduce crime. Break and entries (BNEs) are one of the most patterned and predictable crime types, and may be particularly amendable to predictive crime mapping. A pilot project was conducted to spatially predict BNEs and property crime in Vancouver, Canada. Using detailed data collected by the Vancouver Police Department on where and when observed crimes occur, the statistical model was able to predict future BNEs for residential and commercial locations. Ideally implemented within a mobile GIS, the automated model provides continually updated predictive maps and may assist patrol units in self-deployment decisions. Future research is required to overcome computational and statistical limitations, and to preform model validation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)121-135
Number of pages15
JournalPolice Practice and Research
Issue number2
StatePublished - Mar 4 2015
Externally publishedYes


  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
  • Vancouver
  • break and entries (BNEs)
  • intelligence led policing
  • predictive mapping
  • statistical modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Law


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