Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk

Ralph A. DeFronzo; Devjit Tripathy; Dawn C. Schwenke; Mary Ann Banerji; George A. Bray; Thomas A. Buchanan; Stephen C. Clement; Robert R. Henry; Abbas E. Kitabchi; Sunder Mudaliar; Robert E. Ratner; Frankie B. Stentz; Nicolas Musi; Peter D. Reaven; Amalia Gastaldelli

doi:10.2337/dc13-0520

Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk

Ralph A. DeFronzo, Devjit Tripathy, Dawn C. Schwenke, Mary Ann Banerji, George A. Bray, Thomas A. Buchanan, Stephen C. Clement, Robert R. Henry, Abbas E. Kitabchi, Sunder Mudaliar, Robert E. Ratner, Frankie B. Stentz, Nicolas Musi, Peter D. Reaven, Amalia Gastaldelli

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

52 Scopus citations

Abstract

OBJECTIVE-Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DMversus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACTNOWand who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. RESULTS-In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, ΔG_0-120 during OGTT, HbA _1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln ΔI_0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [ΔI_0-120/ ΔG_0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [ΔI_0-120/ΔG_0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P<0.0001)was the variablemost closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS-In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA_1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	3607-3612
Number of pages	6
Journal	Diabetes Care
Volume	36
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2337/dc13-0520
State	Published - Nov 2013
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Internal Medicine
Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
Advanced and Specialized Nursing

Access to Document

10.2337/dc13-0520

Cite this

DeFronzo, R. A., Tripathy, D., Schwenke, D. C., Banerji, M. A., Bray, G. A., Buchanan, T. A., Clement, S. C., Henry, R. R., Kitabchi, A. E., Mudaliar, S., Ratner, R. E., Stentz, F. B., Musi, N., Reaven, P. D., & Gastaldelli, A. (2013). Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk. Diabetes Care, 36(11), 3607-3612. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc13-0520

DeFronzo, RA, Tripathy, D, Schwenke, DC, Banerji, MA, Bray, GA, Buchanan, TA, Clement, SC, Henry, RR, Kitabchi, AE, Mudaliar, S, Ratner, RE, Stentz, FB, Musi, N, Reaven, PD & Gastaldelli, A 2013, 'Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk', Diabetes Care, vol. 36, no. 11, pp. 3607-3612. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc13-0520

@article{36d5f34b0dc7422eaa5d3b5a15b94235,

title = "Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk",

abstract = "OBJECTIVE-Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DMversus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACTNOWand who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. RESULTS-In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, ΔG0-120 during OGTT, HbA 1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln ΔI0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [ΔI0-120/ ΔG0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [ΔI0-120/ΔG0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P<0.0001)was the variablemost closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS-In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).",

author = "DeFronzo, {Ralph A.} and Devjit Tripathy and Schwenke, {Dawn C.} and Banerji, {Mary Ann} and Bray, {George A.} and Buchanan, {Thomas A.} and Clement, {Stephen C.} and Henry, {Robert R.} and Kitabchi, {Abbas E.} and Sunder Mudaliar and Ratner, {Robert E.} and Stentz, {Frankie B.} and Nicolas Musi and Reaven, {Peter D.} and Amalia Gastaldelli",

year = "2013",

month = nov,

doi = "10.2337/dc13-0520",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "36",

pages = "3607--3612",

journal = "Diabetes Care",

issn = "0149-5992",

publisher = "American Diabetes Association Inc.",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk

AU - DeFronzo, Ralph A.

AU - Tripathy, Devjit

AU - Schwenke, Dawn C.

AU - Banerji, Mary Ann

AU - Bray, George A.

AU - Buchanan, Thomas A.

AU - Clement, Stephen C.

AU - Henry, Robert R.

AU - Kitabchi, Abbas E.

AU - Mudaliar, Sunder

AU - Ratner, Robert E.

AU - Stentz, Frankie B.

AU - Musi, Nicolas

AU - Reaven, Peter D.

AU - Gastaldelli, Amalia

PY - 2013/11

Y1 - 2013/11

N2 - OBJECTIVE-Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DMversus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACTNOWand who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. RESULTS-In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, ΔG0-120 during OGTT, HbA 1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln ΔI0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [ΔI0-120/ ΔG0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [ΔI0-120/ΔG0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P<0.0001)was the variablemost closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS-In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).

AB - OBJECTIVE-Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DMversus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACTNOWand who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. RESULTS-In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, ΔG0-120 during OGTT, HbA 1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln ΔI0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [ΔI0-120/ ΔG0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [ΔI0-120/ΔG0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P<0.0001)was the variablemost closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS-In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84891845753&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84891845753&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.2337/dc13-0520

DO - 10.2337/dc13-0520

M3 - Article

C2 - 24062330

AN - SCOPUS:84891845753

SN - 0149-5992

VL - 36

SP - 3607

EP - 3612

JO - Diabetes Care

JF - Diabetes Care

IS - 11

ER -

Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this