Postwar U.S business cycles: An empirical investigation

Robert J. Hodrick, Edward C. Prescott

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3373 Scopus citations


We propose a procedure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. We document the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series. We find that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-16
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Money, Credit and Banking
Issue number1
StatePublished - Feb 1 1997
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics


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