Participatory scenario planning for climate change adaptation using remote sensing and GIS

To support growing populations in Hawai’i, groundwater pumping is increasing, so an understanding of the interactions between future land cover, groundwater, and climate change is needed. This project used a participatory scenario planning approach with stakeholders on the island of Maui to create spatially explicit depictions of future island land cover for input into a water budget model. Stakeholders first defined the focal issues surrounding land use and groundwater, which fed into four realistic policy scenarios linking past, present, and future conditions. Corresponding land cover maps were developed to quantitatively compare the effects of the scenarios on groundwater in a changing climate. The participatory scenario planning process ensured that the project and spatial products stayed relevant to stakeholders’ needs and adaptive management strategies.