TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors
T2 - Case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona
AU - Zhong, Wei
AU - Kim, Yushim
AU - Jehn, Megan
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgements This study was funded by the Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS) through a Health and Human Services (HHS) preparedness grant, Arizona State University College of Public Program’s research seed grant, and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant (NRF-2010-330-B00262). The authors thank Diane Reed and Andrew Lawless at ADHS, and Ken Anderson at Maricopa County Research & Reporting. We also thank Deborah Schumacher, Tanida Rojchanakasetchai, Barrie Bradley and Tim Lant, who helped conduct this research.
PY - 2013/12
Y1 - 2013/12
N2 - This paper aims to improve the accuracy of standard compartment models in modeling the dynamics of an influenza pandemic. Standard compartment models, which are commonly used in influenza simulations, make unrealistic assumptions about human behavioral responses during a pandemic outbreak. Existing simulation models with public avoidance also make a rigid assumption regarding the human behavioral response to influenza. This paper incorporates realistic assumptions regarding individuals' avoidance behaviors in a standard compartment model. Both the standard and modified models are parameterized, implemented, and compared in the research context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. The modified model with heterogeneous coping behaviors forecasts influenza spread dynamics better than the standard model when evaluated against the empirical data, especially for the beginning of the 2009-2010 normal influenza season starting in October 2009 (i.e., the beginning of the second wave of 2009 H1N1). We end the paper with a discussion of the use of simulation models in efforts to help communities effectively prepare for and respond to influenza pandemics.
AB - This paper aims to improve the accuracy of standard compartment models in modeling the dynamics of an influenza pandemic. Standard compartment models, which are commonly used in influenza simulations, make unrealistic assumptions about human behavioral responses during a pandemic outbreak. Existing simulation models with public avoidance also make a rigid assumption regarding the human behavioral response to influenza. This paper incorporates realistic assumptions regarding individuals' avoidance behaviors in a standard compartment model. Both the standard and modified models are parameterized, implemented, and compared in the research context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Arizona. The modified model with heterogeneous coping behaviors forecasts influenza spread dynamics better than the standard model when evaluated against the empirical data, especially for the beginning of the 2009-2010 normal influenza season starting in October 2009 (i.e., the beginning of the second wave of 2009 H1N1). We end the paper with a discussion of the use of simulation models in efforts to help communities effectively prepare for and respond to influenza pandemics.
KW - Avoidance behavior
KW - Influenza forecasting
KW - Pandemic preparedness and response
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U2 - 10.1007/s10588-012-9146-6
DO - 10.1007/s10588-012-9146-6
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84888138488
SN - 1381-298X
VL - 19
SP - 622
EP - 645
JO - Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory
JF - Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory
IS - 4
ER -