Evolution and future of the Lusi mud eruption inferred from ground deformation

M. L. Rudolph, Manoochehr Shirzaei, M. Manga, Y. Fukushima

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Scopus citations


The ongoing eruption of the Lusi mud volcano in East Java, Indonesia offers the unprecedented opportunity to study a large eruption from its beginning to its eventual end. We use new observations of ground deformation obtained from multitemporal interferometric analysis of L-band synthetic aperture radar data to show that Lusi will stop erupting much sooner than previously anticipated. Using principal component analysis, we find that the rate of ground deformation, and by implication, pressure in the mud source region, has been decaying exponentially with an e-folding time scale of 2.1 ± 0.4 years. We anticipate that discharge will decrease to 10% of the present rate in 5 years. Key Points We measure ground deformation near Lusi using InSAR The rate of ground deformation is decreasing We anticipate that the eruption rate will decrease tenfold in 5 years.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1089-1092
Number of pages4
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number6
StatePublished - Mar 28 2013


  • Lusi
  • deformation
  • longevity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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