TY - JOUR
T1 - Early estimates of epidemic final sizes
AU - Brauer, Fred
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada [grant no. RGPIN-2016-03706].
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2019/3/15
Y1 - 2019/3/15
N2 - Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.
AB - Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.
KW - 92D30
KW - Epidemics
KW - final size estimates
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85046713252&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85046713252&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792
DO - 10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792
M3 - Article
C2 - 29742981
AN - SCOPUS:85046713252
SN - 1751-3758
VL - 13
SP - 23
EP - 30
JO - Journal of biological dynamics
JF - Journal of biological dynamics
IS - sup1
ER -