Early estimates of epidemic final sizes

Fred Brauer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations


Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)23-30
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of biological dynamics
Issue numbersup1
StatePublished - Mar 15 2019


  • 92D30
  • Epidemics
  • final size estimates

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology


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