Drivers of large mammal distribution: an overview and modelling approach for palaeoecological reconstructions of extinct ecosystems

One of the primary goals of the palaeosciences is to produce robust understandings of palaeoecologies of extinct ecosystems. The time has arrived where such palaeoecologies can be significantly improved—agent-based models (ABMs) that synthesize our modern understandings of animal ecology with past conditions provide a unique opportunity for this. The Palaeo-Agulhas Plain (PAP), a now submerged landscape off the south coast of South Africa, formed a novel ecosystem during the lower sea levels of the Pleistocene. Here we provide a review of the utility of ABMs for understanding herbivores in prehistoric environments using the Paleoscape Model. The Paleoscape Model is fortunate to have features models of climate, geology and vegetation upon which we can understand how herbivores used the PAP environment. To incorporate aspects of herbivore behaviour and habitat suitability into the model requires analogies from extant systems. In addition to reconstructions of the availability of resources and associated risks, data on herbivore behaviour and physiology are imperative to our understanding of these systems. Behaviour, driven by changes in the environment, is interpreted by species, leading to selection of suitable habitats ultimately driving the herbivore’s decisions within ABMs. Finally, we discuss herbivore integration into these models that can be used in numerous other scenarios (past, present and future).