Does paid transitional housing impact reentry outcomes during COVID-19 stay-at-home orders? Evidence from a natural experiment within an RCT

In response to COVID-19, states implemented stay-at-home orders, affecting two key correlates of recidivism: housing and employment. In this study, we examine how a programme that sought to facilitate successful reintegration through paid transitional housing was impacted by stay-at-home orders. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of an RCT where formerly incarcerated individuals were provided with paid transitional housing before and during a stay-at-home order. Results indicate no difference in the likelihood of the treatment group and control group to be employed or return to prison prior to the stay-at-home order. After the implementation of the stay-at-home order, however, individuals in the treatment group were more likely to be employed and less likely to return to prison. Our findings suggest that the relationship between housing, employment, and re-incarceration was further exacerbated during the pandemic. The findings illustrate the benefits of paid transitional housing for those returning home during the pandemic. With the economic and social consequences of COVID-19 likely to persist, finding ways to set up formerly incarcerated individuals for success is imperative. Results suggest that paid transitional housing and additional housing assistance may be one avenue to accomplish this goal.