TY - JOUR
T1 - Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities
AU - Krayenhoff, E. Scott
AU - Moustaoui, Mohamed
AU - Broadbent, Ashley
AU - Gupta, Vishesh
AU - Georgescu, Matei
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by National Science Foundation Sustainability Research Network Cooperative Agreement 1444758, the Urban Water Innovation Network, and NSF grants SES-1520803 and EAR‐1204774. The authors acknowledge support from Research Computing at Arizona State University for the provision of high-performance supercomputing services. We also thank A. Martilli for helpful discussions.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - Climate change and urban development are projected to substantially warm US cities, yet dynamic interaction between these two drivers of urban heat may modify the warming. Here, we show that business-as-usual GHG-induced warming and corresponding urban expansion would interact nonlinearly, reducing summer night-time warming by 0.5 K over the twenty-first century in most US regions. Nevertheless, large projected warming remains, particularly at night when the degree of urban expansion warming approaches that of climate change. Joint, high-intensity implementation of adaptation strategies, including cool and evaporative roofs and street trees, decreases projected daytime mean and extreme heat, but region- and emissions scenario-dependent nocturnal warming of 2–7 K persists. A novel adaptation strategy—lightweight urban materials—yields ~1 K night-time cooling and minor daytime warming in denser areas. Our findings highlight the diurnal interplay of urban warming and adaptation cooling, and underscore the inability of infrastructure-based adaptation to offset projected night-time warming, and the consequent necessity for simultaneous emissions reductions.
AB - Climate change and urban development are projected to substantially warm US cities, yet dynamic interaction between these two drivers of urban heat may modify the warming. Here, we show that business-as-usual GHG-induced warming and corresponding urban expansion would interact nonlinearly, reducing summer night-time warming by 0.5 K over the twenty-first century in most US regions. Nevertheless, large projected warming remains, particularly at night when the degree of urban expansion warming approaches that of climate change. Joint, high-intensity implementation of adaptation strategies, including cool and evaporative roofs and street trees, decreases projected daytime mean and extreme heat, but region- and emissions scenario-dependent nocturnal warming of 2–7 K persists. A novel adaptation strategy—lightweight urban materials—yields ~1 K night-time cooling and minor daytime warming in denser areas. Our findings highlight the diurnal interplay of urban warming and adaptation cooling, and underscore the inability of infrastructure-based adaptation to offset projected night-time warming, and the consequent necessity for simultaneous emissions reductions.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-018-0320-9
DO - 10.1038/s41558-018-0320-9
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85056626051
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 8
SP - 1097
EP - 1103
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 12
ER -