Development of a route level patronage forecasting method

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13 Scopus citations


The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a model designed to predict changes to ridership resulting from small changes in the service provided by a given bus line. The paper describes the methodology used and rationale for the methodology; the manipulation of data required to produce the model and for use with the model; and the models themselves. A brief description is provided of some results from hypothetical service changes. Because actual changes and their consequent ridership changes were not available to the author, only the hypothetical results can be reported. The model was intended to be able to respond to the following types of service changes at a route level, by service period and route type; including each of changes in headways by service period, elimination of service in a time period, route extensions and new routes, route shortenings and short-lines, changes in the service period (i.e., addition or elimination of a trip within a service period to extend or shorten it), and the combined effect of any two or more such actions. The primary output from the model was designed to be the change in boardings on the route, and possibly on other routes that would be impacted through transfer patterns.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)201-220
Number of pages20
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 1992
Externally publishedYes


  • demand
  • operations
  • quick response
  • service
  • transit

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Development
  • Transportation


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