TY - JOUR
T1 - Conceptualizing and implementing an agent-based model of information flow and decision making during hurricane threats
AU - Watts, Joshua
AU - Morss, Rebecca E.
AU - Barton, C. Michael
AU - Demuth, Julie L.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge Sean Bergin, Wendy Cegielski, Nicholas Gauthier, and Grant Snitker for their assistance with the development and testing of the agent-based model. We also thank our collaborators on the larger project, especially Heather Lazrus, Olga Wilhelmi, Christopher Davis, Kathryn Fossell, David Ahijevych, Chris Snyder, Leysia Palen, and Kenneth Anderson, for their contributions to this research. The work reported here was supported by National Science Foundation award AGS 1331490 . The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2019/12
Y1 - 2019/12
N2 - This article introduces an agent-based modeling laboratory for investigating how evolving hazard information, propagated through forecaster, media, public official, and peer information networks, affects patterns of public protective-action decisions during hurricane threats. The model, called CHIME ABM, provides a platform for integrating atmospheric science, social science, and computer and information science knowledge and data to explore the complex socio-ecological dynamics of modern hazard information and decision systems from a new perspective. First, the model's interdisciplinary conceptualization and implementation is described. Results are then presented from experiments demonstrating the model's behaviors and comparing patterns of evacuation decisions when key agent parameters and the geographical population distribution, forecast skill, and storm are varied. The article illustrates how this type of theoretically and empirically informed digital laboratory can be used to develop new insights into the interactions among environmental hazards, information flow, protective decisions, and societal outcomes.
AB - This article introduces an agent-based modeling laboratory for investigating how evolving hazard information, propagated through forecaster, media, public official, and peer information networks, affects patterns of public protective-action decisions during hurricane threats. The model, called CHIME ABM, provides a platform for integrating atmospheric science, social science, and computer and information science knowledge and data to explore the complex socio-ecological dynamics of modern hazard information and decision systems from a new perspective. First, the model's interdisciplinary conceptualization and implementation is described. Results are then presented from experiments demonstrating the model's behaviors and comparing patterns of evacuation decisions when key agent parameters and the geographical population distribution, forecast skill, and storm are varied. The article illustrates how this type of theoretically and empirically informed digital laboratory can be used to develop new insights into the interactions among environmental hazards, information flow, protective decisions, and societal outcomes.
KW - Agent-based modeling
KW - Evacuation decisions
KW - Hurricanes
KW - Information networks
KW - Natural hazards
KW - Risk communication
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U2 - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104524
DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104524
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85073011589
SN - 1364-8152
VL - 122
JO - Environmental Modelling and Software
JF - Environmental Modelling and Software
M1 - 104524
ER -