Climate change and tropical agriculture: Implications for social vulnerability and food security

A review of relevant data would lead one to be optimistic about the world’s future capacity to feed itself under projected scenarios of climate change. On the whole, food production has kept up with population growth, the prices of cereals have been gradually declining, and trade models suggest that markets can move food effectively between countries and continents to compensate for deficits (Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO], 2003). Assuming that farmers can and will make adjustments in crop varieties, planting dates, irrigation applications, and the area they plant, research has shown that anticipated negative impacts of climate change on yields can be partially or perhaps even largely mitigated at the global scale (Helms et al., 1996; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1993).