Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits

Michael J. Wilensky; Fraser Kennedy; Philip Bull; Joshua S. Dillon; Zara Abdurashidova; Tyrone Adams; James E. Aguirre; Paul Alexander; Zaki S. Ali; Rushelle Baartman; Yanga Balfour; Adam P. Beardsley; Gianni Bernardi; Tashalee S. Billings; Judd D. Bowman; Richard F. Bradley; Jacob Burba; Steven Carey; Chris L. Carilli; Carina Cheng; David R. Deboer; Eloy De Lera Acedo; Matt Dexter; Nico Eksteen; John Ely; Aaron Ewall-Wice; Nicolas Fagnoni; Randall Fritz; Steven R. Furlanetto; Kingsley Gale-Sides; Brian Glendenning; Deepthi Gorthi; Bradley Greig; Jasper Grobbelaar; Ziyaad Halday; Bryna J. Hazelton; Jacqueline N. Hewitt; Jack Hickish; Daniel C. Jacobs; Austin Julius; MacCalvin Kariseb; Nicholas S. Kern; Joshua Kerrigan; Piyanat Kittiwisit; Saul A. Kohn; Matthew Kolopanis; Adam Lanman; Paul La Plante; Adrian Liu; Anita Loots; David Harold Edward Macmahon; Lourence Malan; Cresshim Malgas; Keith Malgas; Bradley Marero; Zachary E. Martinot; Andrei Mesinger; Mathakane Molewa; Miguel F. Morales; Tshegofalang Mosiane; Steven G. Murray; Abraham R. Neben; Bojan Nikolic; Hans Nuwegeld; Aaron R. Parsons; Nipanjana Patra; Samantha Pieterse; Nima Razavi-Ghods; James Robnett; Kathryn Rosie; Peter Sims; Hilton Swarts; Nithyanandan Thyagarajan; Pieter Van Wyngaarden; Peter K.G. Williams; Haoxuan Zheng

doi:10.1093/mnras/stac3484

Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits

Michael J. Wilensky, Fraser Kennedy, Philip Bull, Joshua S. Dillon, Zara Abdurashidova, Tyrone Adams, James E. Aguirre, Paul Alexander, Zaki S. Ali, Rushelle Baartman, Yanga Balfour, Adam P. Beardsley, Gianni Bernardi, Tashalee S. Billings, Judd D. Bowman, Richard F. Bradley, Jacob Burba, Steven Carey, Chris L. Carilli, Carina ChengDavid R. Deboer, Eloy De Lera Acedo, Matt Dexter, Nico Eksteen, John Ely, Aaron Ewall-Wice, Nicolas Fagnoni, Randall Fritz, Steven R. Furlanetto, Kingsley Gale-Sides, Brian Glendenning, Deepthi Gorthi, Bradley Greig, Jasper Grobbelaar, Ziyaad Halday, Bryna J. Hazelton, Jacqueline N. Hewitt, Jack Hickish, Daniel C. Jacobs, Austin Julius, MacCalvin Kariseb, Nicholas S. Kern, Joshua Kerrigan, Piyanat Kittiwisit, Saul A. Kohn, Matthew Kolopanis, Adam Lanman, Paul La Plante, Adrian Liu, Anita Loots, David Harold Edward Macmahon, Lourence Malan, Cresshim Malgas, Keith Malgas, Bradley Marero, Zachary E. Martinot, Andrei Mesinger, Mathakane Molewa, Miguel F. Morales, Tshegofalang Mosiane, Steven G. Murray, Abraham R. Neben, Bojan Nikolic, Hans Nuwegeld, Aaron R. Parsons, Nipanjana Patra, Samantha Pieterse, Nima Razavi-Ghods, James Robnett, Kathryn Rosie, Peter Sims, Hilton Swarts, Nithyanandan Thyagarajan, Pieter Van Wyngaarden, Peter K.G. Williams, Haoxuan Zheng

Earth and Space Exploration, School of (SESE)

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

We present a Bayesian jackknife test for assessing the probability that a data set contains biased subsets, and, if so, which of the subsets are likely to be biased. The test can be used to assess the presence and likely source of statistical tension between different measurements of the same quantities in an automated manner. Under certain broadly applicable assumptions, the test is analytically tractable. We also provide an open-source code, chiborg, that performs both analytic and numerical computations of the test on general Gaussian-distributed data. After exploring the information theoretical aspects of the test and its performance with an array of simulations, we apply it to data from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) to assess whether different sub-seasons of observing can justifiably be combined to produce a deeper 21 cm power spectrum upper limit. We find that, with a handful of exceptions, the HERA data in question are statistically consistent and this decision is justified. We conclude by pointing out the wide applicability of this test, including to CMB experiments and the H0 tension.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	6041-6058
Number of pages	18
Journal	Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume	518
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3484
State	Published - Feb 1 2023

Keywords

cosmology: observations
dark ages, reionization, first stars
methods: data analysis
methods: statistical
software: data analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Astronomy and Astrophysics
Space and Planetary Science

Access to Document

10.1093/mnras/stac3484

Cite this

Wilensky, M. J., Kennedy, F., Bull, P., Dillon, J. S., Abdurashidova, Z., Adams, T., Aguirre, J. E., Alexander, P., Ali, Z. S., Baartman, R., Balfour, Y., Beardsley, A. P., Bernardi, G., Billings, T. S., Bowman, J. D., Bradley, R. F., Burba, J., Carey, S., Carilli, C. L., ... Zheng, H. (2023). Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 518(4), 6041-6058. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3484

Wilensky, MJ, Kennedy, F, Bull, P, Dillon, JS, Abdurashidova, Z, Adams, T, Aguirre, JE, Alexander, P, Ali, ZS, Baartman, R, Balfour, Y, Beardsley, AP, Bernardi, G, Billings, TS, Bowman, JD, Bradley, RF, Burba, J, Carey, S, Carilli, CL, Cheng, C, Deboer, DR, De Lera Acedo, E, Dexter, M, Eksteen, N, Ely, J, Ewall-Wice, A, Fagnoni, N, Fritz, R, Furlanetto, SR, Gale-Sides, K, Glendenning, B, Gorthi, D, Greig, B, Grobbelaar, J, Halday, Z, Hazelton, BJ, Hewitt, JN, Hickish, J, Jacobs, DC, Julius, A, Kariseb, M, Kern, NS, Kerrigan, J, Kittiwisit, P, Kohn, SA, Kolopanis, M, Lanman, A, La Plante, P, Liu, A, Loots, A, Macmahon, DHE, Malan, L, Malgas, C, Malgas, K, Marero, B, Martinot, ZE, Mesinger, A, Molewa, M, Morales, MF, Mosiane, T, Murray, SG, Neben, AR, Nikolic, B, Nuwegeld, H, Parsons, AR, Patra, N, Pieterse, S, Razavi-Ghods, N, Robnett, J, Rosie, K, Sims, P, Swarts, H, Thyagarajan, N, Van Wyngaarden, P, Williams, PKG & Zheng, H 2023, 'Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits', Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol. 518, no. 4, pp. 6041-6058. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac3484

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title = "Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits",

abstract = "We present a Bayesian jackknife test for assessing the probability that a data set contains biased subsets, and, if so, which of the subsets are likely to be biased. The test can be used to assess the presence and likely source of statistical tension between different measurements of the same quantities in an automated manner. Under certain broadly applicable assumptions, the test is analytically tractable. We also provide an open-source code, chiborg, that performs both analytic and numerical computations of the test on general Gaussian-distributed data. After exploring the information theoretical aspects of the test and its performance with an array of simulations, we apply it to data from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) to assess whether different sub-seasons of observing can justifiably be combined to produce a deeper 21 cm power spectrum upper limit. We find that, with a handful of exceptions, the HERA data in question are statistically consistent and this decision is justified. We conclude by pointing out the wide applicability of this test, including to CMB experiments and the H0 tension.",

keywords = "cosmology: observations, dark ages, reionization, first stars, methods: data analysis, methods: statistical, software: data analysis",

author = "Wilensky, {Michael J.} and Fraser Kennedy and Philip Bull and Dillon, {Joshua S.} and Zara Abdurashidova and Tyrone Adams and Aguirre, {James E.} and Paul Alexander and Ali, {Zaki S.} and Rushelle Baartman and Yanga Balfour and Beardsley, {Adam P.} and Gianni Bernardi and Billings, {Tashalee S.} and Bowman, {Judd D.} and Bradley, {Richard F.} and Jacob Burba and Steven Carey and Carilli, {Chris L.} and Carina Cheng and Deboer, {David R.} and {De Lera Acedo}, Eloy and Matt Dexter and Nico Eksteen and John Ely and Aaron Ewall-Wice and Nicolas Fagnoni and Randall Fritz and Furlanetto, {Steven R.} and Kingsley Gale-Sides and Brian Glendenning and Deepthi Gorthi and Bradley Greig and Jasper Grobbelaar and Ziyaad Halday and Hazelton, {Bryna J.} and Hewitt, {Jacqueline N.} and Jack Hickish and Jacobs, {Daniel C.} and Austin Julius and MacCalvin Kariseb and Kern, {Nicholas S.} and Joshua Kerrigan and Piyanat Kittiwisit and Kohn, {Saul A.} and Matthew Kolopanis and Adam Lanman and {La Plante}, Paul and Adrian Liu and Anita Loots and Macmahon, {David Harold Edward} and Lourence Malan and Cresshim Malgas and Keith Malgas and Bradley Marero and Martinot, {Zachary E.} and Andrei Mesinger and Mathakane Molewa and Morales, {Miguel F.} and Tshegofalang Mosiane and Murray, {Steven G.} and Neben, {Abraham R.} and Bojan Nikolic and Hans Nuwegeld and Parsons, {Aaron R.} and Nipanjana Patra and Samantha Pieterse and Nima Razavi-Ghods and James Robnett and Kathryn Rosie and Peter Sims and Hilton Swarts and Nithyanandan Thyagarajan and {Van Wyngaarden}, Pieter and Williams, {Peter K.G.} and Haoxuan Zheng",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society.",

year = "2023",

month = feb,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1093/mnras/stac3484",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "518",

pages = "6041--6058",

journal = "Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets

T2 - application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits

AU - Wilensky, Michael J.

AU - Kennedy, Fraser

AU - Bull, Philip

AU - Dillon, Joshua S.

AU - Abdurashidova, Zara

AU - Adams, Tyrone

AU - Aguirre, James E.

AU - Alexander, Paul

AU - Ali, Zaki S.

AU - Baartman, Rushelle

AU - Balfour, Yanga

AU - Beardsley, Adam P.

AU - Bernardi, Gianni

AU - Billings, Tashalee S.

AU - Bowman, Judd D.

AU - Bradley, Richard F.

AU - Burba, Jacob

AU - Carey, Steven

AU - Carilli, Chris L.

AU - Cheng, Carina

AU - Deboer, David R.

AU - De Lera Acedo, Eloy

AU - Dexter, Matt

AU - Eksteen, Nico

AU - Ely, John

AU - Ewall-Wice, Aaron

AU - Fagnoni, Nicolas

AU - Fritz, Randall

AU - Furlanetto, Steven R.

AU - Gale-Sides, Kingsley

AU - Glendenning, Brian

AU - Gorthi, Deepthi

AU - Greig, Bradley

AU - Grobbelaar, Jasper

AU - Halday, Ziyaad

AU - Hazelton, Bryna J.

AU - Hewitt, Jacqueline N.

AU - Hickish, Jack

AU - Jacobs, Daniel C.

AU - Julius, Austin

AU - Kariseb, MacCalvin

AU - Kern, Nicholas S.

AU - Kerrigan, Joshua

AU - Kittiwisit, Piyanat

AU - Kohn, Saul A.

AU - Kolopanis, Matthew

AU - Lanman, Adam

AU - La Plante, Paul

AU - Liu, Adrian

AU - Loots, Anita

AU - Macmahon, David Harold Edward

AU - Malan, Lourence

AU - Malgas, Cresshim

AU - Malgas, Keith

AU - Marero, Bradley

AU - Martinot, Zachary E.

AU - Mesinger, Andrei

AU - Molewa, Mathakane

AU - Morales, Miguel F.

AU - Mosiane, Tshegofalang

AU - Murray, Steven G.

AU - Neben, Abraham R.

AU - Nikolic, Bojan

AU - Nuwegeld, Hans

AU - Parsons, Aaron R.

AU - Patra, Nipanjana

AU - Pieterse, Samantha

AU - Razavi-Ghods, Nima

AU - Robnett, James

AU - Rosie, Kathryn

AU - Sims, Peter

AU - Swarts, Hilton

AU - Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan

AU - Van Wyngaarden, Pieter

AU - Williams, Peter K.G.

AU - Zheng, Haoxuan

PY - 2023/2/1

Y1 - 2023/2/1

N2 - We present a Bayesian jackknife test for assessing the probability that a data set contains biased subsets, and, if so, which of the subsets are likely to be biased. The test can be used to assess the presence and likely source of statistical tension between different measurements of the same quantities in an automated manner. Under certain broadly applicable assumptions, the test is analytically tractable. We also provide an open-source code, chiborg, that performs both analytic and numerical computations of the test on general Gaussian-distributed data. After exploring the information theoretical aspects of the test and its performance with an array of simulations, we apply it to data from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) to assess whether different sub-seasons of observing can justifiably be combined to produce a deeper 21 cm power spectrum upper limit. We find that, with a handful of exceptions, the HERA data in question are statistically consistent and this decision is justified. We conclude by pointing out the wide applicability of this test, including to CMB experiments and the H0 tension.

AB - We present a Bayesian jackknife test for assessing the probability that a data set contains biased subsets, and, if so, which of the subsets are likely to be biased. The test can be used to assess the presence and likely source of statistical tension between different measurements of the same quantities in an automated manner. Under certain broadly applicable assumptions, the test is analytically tractable. We also provide an open-source code, chiborg, that performs both analytic and numerical computations of the test on general Gaussian-distributed data. After exploring the information theoretical aspects of the test and its performance with an array of simulations, we apply it to data from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) to assess whether different sub-seasons of observing can justifiably be combined to produce a deeper 21 cm power spectrum upper limit. We find that, with a handful of exceptions, the HERA data in question are statistically consistent and this decision is justified. We conclude by pointing out the wide applicability of this test, including to CMB experiments and the H0 tension.

KW - cosmology: observations

KW - dark ages, reionization, first stars

KW - methods: data analysis

KW - methods: statistical

KW - software: data analysis

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U2 - 10.1093/mnras/stac3484

DO - 10.1093/mnras/stac3484

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JO - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

JF - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

IS - 4

ER -

Bayesian jackknife tests with a small number of subsets: application to HERA 21 cm power spectrum upper limits

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