TY - JOUR
T1 - Are mature smokers misinformed?
AU - Khwaja, Ahmed
AU - Silverman, Dan
AU - Sloan, Frank
AU - Wang, Yang
N1 - Funding Information:
This research has been supported by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Substance Abuse Research Program 2004–2007 “Why Mature Smokers Don’t Quit.” We thank Charlie Brown, Han Hong and two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions that much improved the paper. All remaining errors are our own.
PY - 2009/3
Y1 - 2009/3
N2 - While there are many reasons to continue to smoke in spite of its consequences for health, the concern that many smoke because they misperceive the risks of smoking remains a focus of public discussion and motivates tobacco control policies and litigation. In this paper we investigate the relative accuracy of mature smokers' risk perceptions about future survival, and a range of morbidities and disabilities. Using data from the survey on smoking (SOS) conducted for this research, we compare subjective beliefs elicited from the SOS with corresponding individual-specific objective probabilities estimated from the health and retirement study. Overall, consumers in the age group studied, 50-70, are not overly optimistic in their perceptions of health risk. If anything, smokers tend to be relatively pessimistic about these risks. The finding that smokers are either well informed or pessimistic regarding a broad range of health risks suggests that these beliefs are not pivotal in the decision to continue smoking. Although statements by the tobacco companies may have been misleading and thus encouraged some to start smoking, we find no evidence that systematic misinformation about the health consequences of smoking inhibits quitting.
AB - While there are many reasons to continue to smoke in spite of its consequences for health, the concern that many smoke because they misperceive the risks of smoking remains a focus of public discussion and motivates tobacco control policies and litigation. In this paper we investigate the relative accuracy of mature smokers' risk perceptions about future survival, and a range of morbidities and disabilities. Using data from the survey on smoking (SOS) conducted for this research, we compare subjective beliefs elicited from the SOS with corresponding individual-specific objective probabilities estimated from the health and retirement study. Overall, consumers in the age group studied, 50-70, are not overly optimistic in their perceptions of health risk. If anything, smokers tend to be relatively pessimistic about these risks. The finding that smokers are either well informed or pessimistic regarding a broad range of health risks suggests that these beliefs are not pivotal in the decision to continue smoking. Although statements by the tobacco companies may have been misleading and thus encouraged some to start smoking, we find no evidence that systematic misinformation about the health consequences of smoking inhibits quitting.
KW - Health
KW - Mortality
KW - Smoking
KW - Subjective beliefs
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2008.12.004
DO - 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2008.12.004
M3 - Article
C2 - 19178971
AN - SCOPUS:62049085870
SN - 0167-6296
VL - 28
SP - 385
EP - 397
JO - Journal of Health Economics
JF - Journal of Health Economics
IS - 2
ER -