Abstract
One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 1192-1207 |
Number of pages | 16 |
Journal | Energy Economics |
Volume | 30 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - May 2008 |
Keywords
- Energy supply
- Forecast evaluation
- U.S. Department of Energy forecasts
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- General Energy