A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn; Indranil Goswami; Carl F. Mela

doi:10.1214/15-AOAS830

A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

P. Richard Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1459-1483
Number of pages	25
Journal	Annals of Applied Statistics
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS830
State	Published - Sep 2015
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Behavioral game theory
Hierarchical modeling
Partial identification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Access to Document

10.1214/15-AOAS830

Cite this

@article{63f9f0f7248441b4b3ef0d1d67962fae,

title = "A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game",

abstract = "The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.",

keywords = "Behavioral game theory, Hierarchical modeling, Partial identification",

author = "Hahn, {P. Richard} and Indranil Goswami and Mela, {Carl F.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2015.",

year = "2015",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1214/15-AOAS830",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "9",

pages = "1459--1483",

journal = "Annals of Applied Statistics",

issn = "1932-6157",

publisher = "Institute of Mathematical Statistics",

number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

AU - Hahn, P. Richard

AU - Goswami, Indranil

AU - Mela, Carl F.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2015.

PY - 2015/9

Y1 - 2015/9

N2 - The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

AB - The p-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a speciallydesigned web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called k-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a k-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

KW - Behavioral game theory

KW - Hierarchical modeling

KW - Partial identification

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84946549789&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84946549789&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1214/15-AOAS830

DO - 10.1214/15-AOAS830

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84946549789

SN - 1932-6157

VL - 9

SP - 1459

EP - 1483

JO - Annals of Applied Statistics

JF - Annals of Applied Statistics

IS - 3

ER -

A bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this