Urban adaptation to mega-drought: Anticipatory water modeling, policy, and planning for the urban Southwest

Patricia Gober, David A. Sampson, Ray Quay, Dave White, Winston T L Chow

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

36 Scopus citations


This paper uses ‘Medieval’ drought conditions from the 12th Century to simulate the implications of severe and persistent drought for the future of water resource management in metropolitan Phoenix, one of the largest and fastest growing urban areas in the southwestern USA. WaterSim 5, an anticipatory water policy and planning model, was used to explore groundwater sustainability outcomes for mega-drought conditions across a range of policies, including population growth management, water conservation, water banking, direct reuse of RO reclaimed water, and water augmentation. Results revealed that business-as-usual population growth, per capita use trends, and management strategies are not sustainable over the long term, even without mega-drought conditions as years of available groundwater supply decline over the simulation period from 2000 to 2060. Adding mega-drought increases the decline in aquifer level and increases the variability in flows and uncertainty about future groundwater supplies. Simulations that combine drought management policies return the region to levels that are more sustainable. Results demonstrate the value of long-term planning and policy analysis for anticipating and adapting to environmental and societal change. Similar anticipatory exercises can be used to assess different suites of drought management policies in other cities facing uncertainty about future conditions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)497-504
Number of pages8
JournalSustainable Cities and Society
StatePublished - Nov 1 2016


  • Decision making under uncertainty (DMUU)
  • Mega-drought
  • Scenario planning
  • Sustainable urban development
  • Water resources management
  • WaterSim 5

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Transportation


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