Uncertainty in baseline regression modeling and in determination of retrofit savings

T. A. Reddy, J. K. Kissock, D. K. Ruch

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

40 Scopus citations


The objective of this paper is to discuss the various sources of uncertainty inherent in the estimation of actual measured energy savings from baseline regression models, and to present pertinent statistical concepts and formulae to determine this uncertainty. Regression models of energy use in commercial buildings are not of the “standard” type addressed in textbooks because of the changepoint behavior of the models and the effect of patterned and non-constant variance residuals (largely as a result of changes in operating modes of the building and the HVAC system). This paper also addresses such issues as how model prediction is impacted by both improper model residuals and models identified from data periods which do not encompass the entire range of variation of both climatic conditions and the different building operating modes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)185-192
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Solar Energy Engineering, Transactions of the ASME
Issue number3
StatePublished - Aug 1998
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology


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