The prediction of violence and homicide in young men

Rolf Loeber, Dustin Pardini, D. Lynn Homish, Evelyn H. Wei, David P. Farrington, Judith Creemers, Anne M. Crawford, Magda Stouthamer-Loeber, Steven A. Koehler, Richard Rosenfeld

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

234 Scopus citations


In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193 participants were convicted of serious violence, whereas another 498 participants self-reported serious violence. Predictors of violence included risk factors in the domains of child, family, school, and demographic characteristics. Boys with 4 or more violence risk factors were 6 times more likely to later commit violence in comparison with boys with fewer than 4 risk factors (odds ratio [OR] = 6.05). A subset of risk factors related to violence also predicted homicide among violent offenders. Boys with 4 or more risk factors for homicide were 14 times more likely to later commit homicide than violent individuals with fewer than 4 risk factors (OR = 14.48). Implications for the prevention of violence and homicide are discussed.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1074-1088
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of consulting and clinical psychology
Issue number6
StatePublished - Dec 2005
Externally publishedYes


  • Development
  • Homicide
  • Precursors
  • Prediction
  • Violence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Clinical Psychology
  • Psychiatry and Mental health


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