The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera; N. Scovronick; F. Sera; D. Royé; R. Schneider; A. Tobias; C. Astrom; Y. Guo; Y. Honda; D. M. Hondula; R. Abrutzky; S. Tong; M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; P. H.Nascimento Saldiva; E. Lavigne; P. Matus Correa; N. Valdes Ortega; H. Kan; S. Osorio; J. Kyselý; A. Urban; H. Orru; E. Indermitte; J. J.K. Jaakkola; N. Ryti; M. Pascal; A. Schneider; K. Katsouyanni; E. Samoli; F. Mayvaneh; A. Entezari; P. Goodman; A. Zeka; P. Michelozzi; F. de’Donato; M. Hashizume; B. Alahmad; M. Hurtado Diaz; C. De La Cruz Valencia; A. Overcenco; D. Houthuijs; C. Ameling; S. Rao; F. Di Ruscio; G. Carrasco-Escobar; X. Seposo; S. Silva; J. Madureira; I. H. Holobaca; S. Fratianni; F. Acquaotta; H. Kim; W. Lee; C. Iniguez; B. Forsberg; M. S. Ragettli; Y. L.L. Guo; B. Y. Chen; S. Li; B. Armstrong; A. Aleman; A. Zanobetti; J. Schwartz; T. N. Dang; D. V. Dung; N. Gillett; A. Haines; M. Mengel; V. Huber; A. Gasparrini

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, N. Scovronick, F. Sera, D. Royé, R. Schneider, A. Tobias, C. Astrom, Y. Guo, Y. Honda, D. M. Hondula, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, P. H.Nascimento Saldiva, E. Lavigne, P. Matus Correa, N. Valdes Ortega, H. Kan, S. Osorio, J. KyselýA. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J.K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de’Donato, M. Hashizume, B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Diaz, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva, J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsberg, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L.L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber, A. Gasparrini

Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, School of (SGSUP)

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291 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	492-500
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	11
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x
State	Published - Jun 2021

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)

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Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F., Royé, D., Schneider, R., Tobias, A., Astrom, C., Guo, Y., Honda, Y., Hondula, D. M., Abrutzky, R., Tong, S., Coelho, M. D. S. Z. S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, E., Correa, P. M., Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., ... Gasparrini, A. (2021). The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature Climate Change, 11(6), 492-500. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

Vicedo-Cabrera, AM, Scovronick, N, Sera, F, Royé, D, Schneider, R, Tobias, A, Astrom, C, Guo, Y, Honda, Y, Hondula, DM, Abrutzky, R, Tong, S, Coelho, MDSZS, Saldiva, PHN, Lavigne, E, Correa, PM, Ortega, NV, Kan, H, Osorio, S, Kyselý, J, Urban, A, Orru, H, Indermitte, E, Jaakkola, JJK, Ryti, N, Pascal, M, Schneider, A, Katsouyanni, K, Samoli, E, Mayvaneh, F, Entezari, A, Goodman, P, Zeka, A, Michelozzi, P, de’Donato, F, Hashizume, M, Alahmad, B, Diaz, MH, Valencia, CDLC, Overcenco, A, Houthuijs, D, Ameling, C, Rao, S, Di Ruscio, F, Carrasco-Escobar, G, Seposo, X, Silva, S, Madureira, J, Holobaca, IH, Fratianni, S, Acquaotta, F, Kim, H, Lee, W, Iniguez, C, Forsberg, B, Ragettli, MS, Guo, YLL, Chen, BY, Li, S, Armstrong, B, Aleman, A, Zanobetti, A, Schwartz, J, Dang, TN, Dung, DV, Gillett, N, Haines, A, Mengel, M, Huber, V & Gasparrini, A 2021, 'The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change', Nature Climate Change, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 492-500. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

@article{78ff6a62af8145209c4236e296c564b0,

title = "The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change",

abstract = "Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.",

author = "Vicedo-Cabrera, {A. M.} and N. Scovronick and F. Sera and D. Roy{\'e} and R. Schneider and A. Tobias and C. Astrom and Y. Guo and Y. Honda and Hondula, {D. M.} and R. Abrutzky and S. Tong and Coelho, {M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio} and Saldiva, {P. H.Nascimento} and E. Lavigne and Correa, {P. Matus} and Ortega, {N. Valdes} and H. Kan and S. Osorio and J. Kysel{\'y} and A. Urban and H. Orru and E. Indermitte and Jaakkola, {J. J.K.} and N. Ryti and M. Pascal and A. Schneider and K. Katsouyanni and E. Samoli and F. Mayvaneh and A. Entezari and P. Goodman and A. Zeka and P. Michelozzi and F. de{\textquoteright}Donato and M. Hashizume and B. Alahmad and Diaz, {M. Hurtado} and Valencia, {C. De La Cruz} and A. Overcenco and D. Houthuijs and C. Ameling and S. Rao and {Di Ruscio}, F. and G. Carrasco-Escobar and X. Seposo and S. Silva and J. Madureira and Holobaca, {I. H.} and S. Fratianni and F. Acquaotta and H. Kim and W. Lee and C. Iniguez and B. Forsberg and Ragettli, {M. S.} and Guo, {Y. L.L.} and Chen, {B. Y.} and S. Li and B. Armstrong and A. Aleman and A. Zanobetti and J. Schwartz and Dang, {T. N.} and Dung, {D. V.} and N. Gillett and A. Haines and M. Mengel and V. Huber and A. Gasparrini",

note = "Funding Information: We thank the participants of the ISIMIP Health workshop in Barcelona in November 2018 where this work was discussed for the first time. This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant no. NE/R009384/1) and the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). N.S. was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412). J.J.J.K.J. was supported by Academy of Finland (grant no. 310372). V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant no. PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LS1201A2). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. 20-28560S). J.M. was supported by the Funda{\c c}{\~a}o para a Ci{\^e}ncia e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). S.R. and F.d.R. were supported by European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (grant no. 820655). M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of SICORP, grant no. JPMJSC20E4. Y.G. was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693). S.L. was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). Y.L.L.G. was supported by the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST110-2918-I-002-007) as a visiting academic at the University of Sydney. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2021",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "11",

pages = "492--500",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

number = "6",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.

AU - Scovronick, N.

AU - Sera, F.

AU - Royé, D.

AU - Schneider, R.

AU - Tobias, A.

AU - Astrom, C.

AU - Guo, Y.

AU - Honda, Y.

AU - Hondula, D. M.

AU - Abrutzky, R.

AU - Tong, S.

AU - Coelho, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio

AU - Saldiva, P. H.Nascimento

AU - Lavigne, E.

AU - Correa, P. Matus

AU - Ortega, N. Valdes

AU - Kan, H.

AU - Osorio, S.

AU - Kyselý, J.

AU - Urban, A.

AU - Orru, H.

AU - Indermitte, E.

AU - Jaakkola, J. J.K.

AU - Ryti, N.

AU - Pascal, M.

AU - Schneider, A.

AU - Katsouyanni, K.

AU - Samoli, E.

AU - Mayvaneh, F.

AU - Entezari, A.

AU - Goodman, P.

AU - Zeka, A.

AU - Michelozzi, P.

AU - de’Donato, F.

AU - Hashizume, M.

AU - Alahmad, B.

AU - Diaz, M. Hurtado

AU - Valencia, C. De La Cruz

AU - Overcenco, A.

AU - Houthuijs, D.

AU - Ameling, C.

AU - Rao, S.

AU - Di Ruscio, F.

AU - Carrasco-Escobar, G.

AU - Seposo, X.

AU - Silva, S.

AU - Madureira, J.

AU - Holobaca, I. H.

AU - Fratianni, S.

AU - Acquaotta, F.

AU - Kim, H.

AU - Lee, W.

AU - Iniguez, C.

AU - Forsberg, B.

AU - Ragettli, M. S.

AU - Guo, Y. L.L.

AU - Chen, B. Y.

AU - Li, S.

AU - Armstrong, B.

AU - Aleman, A.

AU - Zanobetti, A.

AU - Schwartz, J.

AU - Dang, T. N.

AU - Dung, D. V.

AU - Gillett, N.

AU - Haines, A.

AU - Mengel, M.

AU - Huber, V.

AU - Gasparrini, A.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the participants of the ISIMIP Health workshop in Barcelona in November 2018 where this work was discussed for the first time. This study was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (grant no. MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (grant no. NE/R009384/1) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (grant no. 820655). N.S. was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). Y.H. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan (JPMEERF15S11412). J.J.J.K.J. was supported by Academy of Finland (grant no. 310372). V.H. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (grant no. PCIN-2017-046) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LS1201A2). J.K. and A.U. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (grant no. 20-28560S). J.M. was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). S.R. and F.d.R. were supported by European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project EXHAUSTION (grant no. 820655). M.H. was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of SICORP, grant no. JPMJSC20E4. Y.G. was supported by the Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693). S.L. was support by the Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). Y.L.L.G. was supported by the Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST110-2918-I-002-007) as a visiting academic at the University of Sydney. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

PY - 2021/6

Y1 - 2021/6

N2 - Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

AB - Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

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UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85107197406&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

DO - 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85107197406

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 11

SP - 492

EP - 500

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 6

ER -

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

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