Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease

Diego Chowell; Muntaser Safan; Carlos Castillo-Chavez

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5

Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease

Diego Chowell, Muntaser Safan, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

The most recent Ebola outbreak inWest Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze amathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Pages	57-70
Number of pages	14
ISBN (Electronic)	9783319404134
ISBN (Print)	9783319404110
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5
State	Published - Jan 1 2016

Keywords

Early detection
Ebola virus disease
Point-of-care testing
Pre-symptomatic infection

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Mathematics(all)
Medicine(all)

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10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_5

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AU - Safan, Muntaser

AU - Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

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AB - The most recent Ebola outbreak inWest Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze amathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease.

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KW - Point-of-care testing

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Modeling the case of early detection of ebola virus disease

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Keywords

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