Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Ahmed Abdelrazec, Abba Gumel

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

48 Scopus citations


A new stage-structured model for the population dynamics of the mosquito (a major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases), which takes the form of a deterministic system of non-autonomous nonlinear differential equations, is designed and used to study the effect of variability in temperature and rainfall on mosquito abundance in a community. Two functional forms of eggs oviposition rate, namely the Verhulst-Pearl logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin functions, are used. Rigorous analysis of the autonomous version of the model shows that, for any of the oviposition functions considered, the trivial equilibrium of the model is locally- and globally-asymptotically stable if a certain vectorial threshold quantity is less than unity. Conditions for the existence and global asymptotic stability of the non-trivial equilibrium solutions of the model are also derived. The model is shown to undergo a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions (and that increased density-dependent competition in larval mortality reduces the likelihood of such bifurcation). The analyses reveal that the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function sustains more oscillations than the Verhulst-Pearl logistic function (hence, it is more suited, from ecological viewpoint, for modeling the egg oviposition process). The non-autonomous model is shown to have a globally-asymptotically stable trivial periodic solution, for each of the oviposition functions, when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, this model, in the absence of density-dependent mortality rate for larvae, has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable periodic solution under certain conditions. Numerical simulations of the non-autonomous model, using mosquito surveillance and weather data from the Peel region of Ontario, Canada, show a peak mosquito abundance for temperature and rainfall values in the range [20-25]∘C and [15–35] mm, respectively. These ranges are recorded in the Peel region between July and August (hence, this study suggests that anti-mosquito control effects should be intensified during this period).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1351-1395
Number of pages45
JournalJournal Of Mathematical Biology
Issue number6
StatePublished - May 1 2017


  • Autonomous and non-autonomous model
  • Climate change
  • Culex
  • Hopf bifurcation
  • Mosquitoes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Applied Mathematics


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