Hysteresis, price acceptance, and reference prices

The existence of price thresholds in grocery retailing is well-documented. Most authors explain the existence of price thresholds using Assimilation-Contrast Theory, Adaptation Level Theory, or Prospect Theory. However, each of these theories is untenable if consumers are believed to behave rationally. We offer a theoretical explanation grounded in Real Options Theory (ROT) and economic hysteresis. We test the ROT hypothesis against three plausible alternatives using a maximum likelihood friction model that we augment for unobserved heterogeneity. Our findings support the ROT hypothesis, and suggest that the existence of price thresholds in aggregate data are driven by a common recognition of real option values, which do not disappear with the inclusion of consumer heterogeneity.