From the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt: The Predictive Accuracy of the Arizona Youth Assessment System (AZYAS-Reentry) for Juveniles on Parole Supervision

This study had two objectives: (1) to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the AZYAS-Reentry tool and (2) to test whether predictive accuracy levels were consistent across sex and race/ethnicity. Data from 249 Arizona adolescents released from secure care on parole supervision between June 2020 and July 2023 were examined. The mean AZYAS-Reentry score classifies much of the sample as moderate risk. Bivariate analyses show a medium effect size for AZYAS-Reentry on parole revocation for the full sample (r =.344). Predictive accuracy is the highest for African American youth (r =.534), followed by Hispanic (r =.398) and white youth (r =.191). Higher predictive accuracy for African Americans is driven by specific domains (e.g., values, beliefs, and attitudes). The one sex-based difference is the stronger effect of juvenile justice history for females. Findings support using AZYAS-Reentry and highlight the utility of targeting domains to plan interventions across sex and race/ethnicity.