Data Analytics and Modeling for Appointment No-show in Community Health Centers

Iman Mohammadi, Huanmei Wu, Ayten Turkcan, Tammy Toscos, Bradley Doebbeling

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

69 Scopus citations


Objectives: Using predictive modeling techniques, we developed and compared appointment no-show prediction models to better understand appointment adherence in underserved populations. Methods and Materials: We collected electronic health record (EHR) data and appointment data including patient, provider and clinical visit characteristics over a 3-year period. All patient data came from an urban system of community health centers (CHCs) with 10 facilities. We sought to identify critical variables through logistic regression, artificial neural network, and naïve Bayes classifier models to predict missed appointments. We used 10-fold cross-validation to assess the models’ ability to identify patients missing their appointments. Results: Following data preprocessing and cleaning, the final dataset included 73811 unique appointments with 12,392 missed appointments. Predictors of missed appointments versus attended appointments included lead time (time between scheduling and the appointment), patient prior missed appointments, cell phone ownership, tobacco use and the number of days since last appointment. Models had a relatively high area under the curve for all 3 models (e.g., 0.86 for naïve Bayes classifier). Discussion: Patient appointment adherence varies across clinics within a healthcare system. Data analytics results demonstrate the value of existing clinical and operational data to address important operational and management issues. Conclusion: EHR data including patient and scheduling information predicted the missed appointments of underserved populations in urban CHCs. Our application of predictive modeling techniques helped prioritize the design and implementation of interventions that may improve efficiency in community health centers for more timely access to care. CHCs would benefit from investing in the technical resources needed to make these data readily available as a means to inform important operational and policy questions.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalJournal of Primary Care and Community Health
StatePublished - Nov 1 2018


  • access to care
  • appointment non-adherence
  • community health centers
  • electronic health records
  • predictive modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Community and Home Care
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health


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