Abstract
I generate priors for a vector autoregression (VAR) from a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, an RBC model with capital-adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky-price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. The response of hours worked to a TFP shock differs sharply across these models. I compare the accuracy of forecasts made from each of the resulting dynamic stochastic general equilibrium vector autoregression (DSGE-VAR) models. Despite having different structural characteristics, the DSGE-VARs are comparable in terms of forecasting performance. As in previous work, DSGE-VARs compare favorably with atheoretical VARs.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 864-882 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |
Volume | 33 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Apr 2009 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Business cycles
- Economic fluctuations
- Hours debate
- Model evaluation
- Priors from DSGE models
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics
- Control and Optimization
- Applied Mathematics