A two-stage analysis of the effectiveness of promotion programs for U.S. apples

Export promotion programs are intended to help U.S. exporters enter, maintain, and expand foreign markets, but little is known of their success in achieving each of these goals. In this paper we attempt to determine the effectiveness of export promotion in increasing both U.S. market share and total import consumption using apple imports by Singapore and the United Kingdom as case studies. Estimates of a two-stage Linear Expenditure System (LES)/Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model show that promotion increases consumption of apples in both the United Kingdom and Singapore, but increases U.S. market share only in the United Kingdom. The results suggest that free-riding on U.S. promotion can be significant.