Abstract
DeGroot (1974) proposed a model in which a group of k individuals might reach a consensus on a common subjective probability distribution for an unknown parameter. This paper presents a necessary and sufficient condition under which a consensus will be reached by using DeGroot’s method. This work corrects an incorrect statement in the original paper about the conditions needed for a consensus to be reached. The condition for a consensus to be reached is straightforward to check and yields the value of the consensus, if one is reached.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 415-418 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Journal | Journal of the American Statistical Association |
| Volume | 76 |
| Issue number | 374 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jun 1981 |
Keywords
- Markov chain
- Opinion pool
- Stochastic matrix
- Subjective probability distribution
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
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